The Next Decade

The Next Decade

Empire and Republic in a Changing World

von George Friedman

Taschenbuch
Flexibler Einband
272 Seiten; 203 mm x 130 mm
2012 Random House LCC US
ISBN 978-0-307-47639-5

15.80 EUR
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Besprechung
"A must-read." -The Washington Times

"Delivered in an engaging style and with no little dramatic flourish . . . [The Next Decade should] find a wide and receptive popular audience." -San Francisco Chronicle

"Friedman . . . has the unusual ability to view events through the eyes of not only American but also foreign leaders." -New York Observer

"There is a temptation, when you are around George Friedman, to treat him like a Magic 8-Ball." -The New York Times Magazine

"Considering how right [Friedman]'s been over the years, he's worth listening to." -San Antonio Express-News

"Predictions have made George Friedman a hot property these days." -The Wall Street Journal

"Well-researched and compelling." -Publishers Weekly

"Expect the unexpected. . . . He can see without the crystal ball." -Newsweek

Kurztext / Annotation
Die nächsten zehn Jahre werden eine Zeit massiver Veränderungen sein. Terrorismus wird etwas sein, mit dem wir zu leben haben, China wird an seine wirtschaftlichen Grenzen stoßen, die globale Finanzkrise wird abgelöst vom Mangel an Arbeitskräften. Das 21. Jahrhundert wird von der kommenden Dekade geformt werden. Eine Schlüsselrolle in dieser Entwicklung werden die Herrschenden der Welt, allen voran der Präsident der Vereinigten Staaten, innehaben.

Textauszug
INTRODUCTION

Rebalancing America

A century is about events. A decade is about people. I wrote The Next 100 Years to explore the impersonal forces that shape history in the long run, but human beings don't live in the long run. We live in the much shorter span in which our lives are shaped not so much by vast historical trends but by the specific decisions of specific individuals.

This book is about the short run of the next ten years: the specific realities to be faced, the specific decisions to be made, and the likely consequences of those decisions. Most people think that the longer the time frame, the more unpredictable the future. I take the opposite view. Individual actions are the hardest thing to predict. In the course of a century, so many individual decisions are made that no single one of them is ever critical. Each decision is lost in the torrent of judgments that make up a century. But in the shorter time frame of a decade, individual decisions made by individual people, particularly those with political power, can matter enormously. What I wrote in The Next 100 Years is the frame for understanding this decade. But it is only the frame.

Forecasting a century is the art of recognizing the impossible, then eliminating from consideration all the events that, at least logically, aren't going to happen. The reason is, as Sherlock Holmes put it, "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."

It is always possible that a leader will do something unexpectedly foolish or brilliant, which is why forecasting is best left to the long run, the span over which individual decisions don't carry so much weight. But having forecast for the long run, you can reel back your scenario and try to see how it plays out in, say, a decade. What makes this time frame interesting is that it is sufficiently long for the larger, impersonal forces to be at play but short enough for the individual decisions of individual leaders to skew outcomes that otherwise might seem inevitable. A decade is the point at which history and statesmanship meet, and a span in which policies still matter.

I am not normally someone who gets involved in policy debates- I'm more interested in what will happen than in what I want to see happen. But within the span of a decade, events that may not matter in the long run may still affect us personally and deeply. They also can have real meaning in defining which path we take into the future. This book is therefore both a forecast and a discussion of the policies that ought to be followed.

We begin with the United States for the same reason that a study of 1910 would have to begin with Britain. Whatever the future might hold, the global system today pivots around the United States, just as Britain was the pivotal point in the years leading up to World War I. In The Next 100 Years, I wrote about the long-term power of the United States. In this book, I have to write about American weaknesses, which, I think, are not problems in the long run; time will take care of most of these. But because you and I don't live in the long run, for us these problems are very real. Most are rooted in structural imbalances that require solutions. Some are problems of leadership, because, as I said at the outset, a decade is about people.

This discussion of problems and people is particularly urgent at this introduction moment. In the first decade after the United States became the sole global power, the world was, compared to other eras, relatively tranquil. In terms of genuine security issues for the United States, Baghdad and the Balkans were nuisances, not threats. The United States had no need for strategy in a world that appeared to have accepted American leadership without complaint. Ten years later, September 11 brought that illusion crashing to the ground. The world was more dangerous than we imagined, but the o

Kurzbeschreibung
The author of the acclaimed New York Times bestseller The Next 100 Years now focuses his geopolitical forecasting acumen on the next decade and the imminent events and challenges that will test America and the world, specifically addressing the skills that will be required by the decade's leaders.

In the long view, history is seen as a series of events-but the course of those events is determined by individuals and their actions. During the next ten years, individual leaders will face significant transitions for their nations: the United States' relationships with Iran and Israel will be undergoing changes, China will likely confront a major crisis, and the wars in the Islamic world will subside. Unexpected energy and technology developments will emerge, and labor shortages will begin to matter more than financial crises. Distinguished geopolitical forecaster George Friedman analyzes these events from the perspectives of the men and women leading these global changes, focusing in particular on the American president, who will require extraordinary skills to shepherd the United States through this transitional period. The Next Decade is a provocative and fascinating look at the conflicts and opportunities that lie ahead.

Biografische Anmerkung zu den Verfassern
GEORGE FRIEDMAN is founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, which specializes in geopolitical forecasting. Prior to 2015, Friedman was chairman of the global intelligence company Stratfor, which he founded in 1996. Friedman is the author of six books, including the New York Times bestsellers The Next 100 Years and The Next Decade. He is a senior advisor to Gallup, Inc. He lives in Austin, Texas.

Schlagworte